Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
